The global order is in flux. President and Founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media Ian Bremmer and historian and economist Sir Niall Ferguson paint a picture of a world shifting away from the post-World War II framework, marked by rising economic power in the Global South, deepening geopolitical rifts, and increasing domestic instability in the West.
As the U.S. grapples with fiscal challenges and voter discontent, BRICS nations gain economic ground — yet without cohesive leadership or guaranteed investment returns. Meanwhile, China and Russia challenge Western influence, fueling a more fragmented, multipolar world. In this evolving landscape, leaders must navigate uncertainty, adapting to a future where power is increasingly decentralized and global stability is anything but assured.
A world in flux: The geopolitical recession and power shifts
The global order is unraveling — not with a sudden collapse, but through a slow, systemic realignment. Bremmer describes today’s geopolitical landscape as a 75-year cycle in decline, where the institutions that once defined Western dominance — like the U.N., International Monetary Fund and World Trade Organization — are increasingly out of sync with the realities of power.
Russia, China, and the U.S.: A fractured triangle
Russia’s failure to integrate into the West after the Cold War has led to open confrontation, with allies like North Korea and Iran adding to the disruption. Meanwhile, China’s rise has complicated expectations. While deeply embedded in the global economy, Beijing has resisted aligning with the Western-led order, fueling tensions with the U.S.
Shifting power and rising discontent
At home, U.S. voters are questioning the value of global leadership, a sentiment that has fueled the rise of populist figures like U.S. President Donald Trump. Across Europe and beyond, incumbents are losing elections as public frustration with the status quo grows. If the European Union fails to address its economic and security challenges, Bremmer warns, its stability could be at risk.
The Middle East’s new power brokers
With the U.S. playing a diminished role in the region, Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are increasingly shaping Middle Eastern affairs — including managing the conflict in Gaza.
Bremmer’s bottom line? The post-WWII world order is crumbling, leaving behind a fragmented landscape where regional powers fill the gaps. The challenge for leaders is navigating what comes next.
The illusion of order
There is no single world order — only disorder and competing visions of dominance. That was the message for YPO members from historian Ferguson, who laid out the shifting dynamics of global power, economic influence and geopolitical fault lines.
The BRICS growth paradox
The rise of BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) has reshaped global GDP, but Ferguson cautions that economic size doesn’t always translate into investment success. In 2001, the G7 economies were nearly eight times the size of BRICS; today, that gap has shrunk to less than two on a nominal basis. Yet, for all their economic expansion, BRICS nations remain loosely aligned, often divided by trade priorities and political interests.
U.S.-EU fractures and fiscal strains
Ferguson pointed to deepening tensions between the U.S. and the EU, particularly over Ukraine. Meanwhile, within the BRICS, trade disputes could further limit their cohesion. He also warned of the U.S.’s mounting fiscal pressures, introducing Ferguson’s Law: when a great power spends more on interest than on defense, decline follows. With U.S. debt and interest payments rising, the ability to sustain global influence is under pressure.
China’s strategic rerouting
Despite talk of economic decoupling, China continues to supply the U.S. — just through new channels. Ferguson described a world where Chinese exports increasingly move through emerging markets, creating a Chimerica 2.0, where indirect trade keeps the two economies entwined.
His closing thought? The idea that we’re at the height of empire may be an illusion. History suggests we may be closer to decline than we think.
